![]() A vice presidential pick sends an early signal about what a future administration might look like. The importance of a vice presidential candidate has to do more with what the selection says about the presidential candidate and their judgment. The Wall Street Journal in 2016 also analyzed years of election data and found that even when a vice presidential pick was viewed favorably by voters in their party, a majority of voters ultimately said the VP pick ultimately had no measurable impact on their vote for president. Kopko and Devine analyzed election and voter data going back more than 100 years, and found vice presidential candidates usually only make a difference to the outcome of a general election when they are either very popular or very polarizing. “You have to make a lot of assumptions that someone’s going to feel so strongly about their home state, that’s going to override any partisan predispositions.” “We’re pretty skeptical of the home-state advantage too,” Kopko told Vox in a recent interview. But the data supporting the idea of a home state advantage is very slim, according to two political science professors - Chris Devine of the University of Dayton and Kyle Kopko of Elizabethtown College - who have been studying it for years. There are candidates on Biden’s list who hail from Midwestern states, as well as candidates who come from key Sun Belt states like Georgia and Florida. There’s a prevailing idea that a vice presidential candidate can “deliver” their home state for the party. Do vice presidential picks actually matter? “The most important thing - and I’ve actually talked to Barack about this - the most important thing is that there has to be someone who, the day after they’re picked, is prepared to be president of the United States of America if something happened,” Biden said. He has already sought advice on this front from Obama. ![]() Biden has been clear he wants someone considerably younger and ready to assume the duties of the presidency should health problems or other unforeseen circumstances arise. At 77 years old (and 78 when he would assume office), he would be the oldest first-term president ever elected. ![]() The selection of a vice presidential candidate is particularly important for Biden. “Our campaign will run a vigorous vetting process.” “Joe Biden is familiar with the process of selecting a vice presidential candidate, having been on the opposite end of the process in 2008,” a Biden campaign official told Vox. Those calls are only intensifying now.īiden knows well what the vetting process entails he went through it before spending eight years as Barack Obama’s vice president. Some of his advisers, including House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (SC), have for months been publicly pushing him to select a woman of color. They could do the same for Biden in 2020.īiden also wants a running mate ideologically aligned with him and someone he can work well with. Independent women voters helped propel Democrats - and a historic number of women candidates - to the majority in the House of Representatives in 2018. ![]() Trump’s gap with women voters is widening he trailed Hillary Clinton by 14 points with this group in 2016. He’s 25 points ahead of President Donald Trump with women, according to a New York Times analysis of a slew of May and June polls. It’s a smart political move Biden has already opened up a vast lead with women voters in recent polls. Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV) withdrew her name from consideration in late May, saying she planned to serve out the remainder of her Senate term.īiden had already made a pledge that narrows the field considerably: He announced during the March debate that he’d pick a woman as his running mate. And another candidate on Biden’s shortlist, Sen. Klobuchar announced late last week she was withdrawing her name for consideration, adding “this is a moment to put a woman of color” on the ticket. The latest call for Biden to do so came from a candidate who was considered high on his list, Sen. With just a couple months to go until Biden is set to announce his pick, there have been renewed calls for him to pick a woman of color - especially given the last few weeks of intense nationwide protests calling for an end to police brutality against black people. Joe Biden’s veepstakes list is narrowing. ![]()
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